Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS61 KBUF 142350
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
650 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The arrival of the cold air has slowed down across the region
and mainly rain will continue today. Snowfall amounts increased
across western and north-central NY tonight through Thursday
night. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for most counties,
except Livingston, Ontario, and Allegany where Advisories still
hold.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain and snow will transition to moderate snow through
tomorrow night.

2) Breezy and cold weather will result in wind chills around zero
Thursday through Friday morning.

3) Widespread light snow is possible Friday afternoon and evening
with only minor accumulations.

4) Several cold fronts will push across the area Saturday night
through the middle of next week bringing bouts of widespread snow,
heavy at times and frigid temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Widespread rain and snow will transition to
moderate snow through tomorrow night.

A mid-level trough over the Great Lakes region will close off and
slow down over the Ohio Valley through tonight. Surface low pressure
will develop over western Pennsylvania, and deepen while it moves
along the front across central and north-central NY tonight. This
places the eastern Great Lakes region on the northwest side of this
complex system. Arctic air behind the front will cause temperatures
to plummet. Rain will change to snow from west to east through this
evening. An area of frontogenesis will move into western NY tonight.
Snow is expected to become moderate to heavy at times overnight. As
the deepening low moves east of Lake Ontario Thursday morning, this
area of moderate to heavy snow is expected to lift north across Lake
Ontario and north-central NY. Wrap-around moisture and lake
enhancement will support snow across western NY through Thursday. A
north-northwest component will enhance snowfall amounts along the
southern shore of Lake Ontario and along the Chautauqua Ridge and
Boston Hills through Thursday. Greatest snow accumulation tomorrow
is expected along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and north of
route 104, and also across the Chautauqua Ridge and southern Boston
Hills. Snow will become more focused to the southern shore of Lake
Ontario into Oswego county Thursday night. Forecast snowfall totals
increased and most locations were upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning. Based on the distance from the Lakes and track of the low,
lower snowfall amounts are still forecast across the Finger Lakes
region and Advisories continue across Allegany, Livingston, and
Ontario counties.

Uncertainty in this system lies in the location of a deformation
zone or location of mesoscale banding the forecast area. If this
shifts eastward, snow amounts would likely increase across the
Finger Lakes region and decrease across the Northtowns of Buffalo.

Subsidence will increase across the region Thursday night. Lake
effect snow showers will taper off south of Buffalo. A lake effect
convergence band southeast of Lake Ontario will likely persist into
Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Breezy and cold weather will result in wind chills
around zero Thursday through Friday morning.

Arctic air will move into the region tonight through Thursday night.
Temperatures will fall to the teens by daybreak Thursday. High
temperatures will mainly stay in the teens across western NY to the
low to mid 20s east of the Genesee Valley. Wind chill values will be
near zero Thursday through Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread light snow is possible Friday afternoon
and evening with only minor accumulations.

Combination of warm advection and drier air associated with
transient ridge that crosses the region Friday will end the ongoing
lake effect snow off the southeast end of Lake Ontario. Expect the
band to produce additional localized accumulations of a couple
inches southeast of Lake Ontario by midday, then quickly weaken and
end while shifting north through the afternoon. Meanwhile, the next
area of low pressure dives southeast into the upper Great Lakes
Friday morning. An attendant weak warm front will press northeast
across our area bringing some very light widespread snow showers to
western NY sometime Friday afternoon then into  the eastern Lake
Ontario region through the first half of Friday night. Accumulations
will be light with an inch or less expected.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Several cold fronts will push across the area
Saturday night through the middle of next week bringing bouts of
widespread snow, heavy at times and frigid temperatures.

A deep, cold upper level trough will dig across the eastern half of
the CONUS for the second half of the weekend through at least the
middle of next week. A mid level shortwave will combine with the
first of several cold fronts to bring increasing snow chances
through the day Saturday into Saturday night, especially across
upslope and lake enhanced areas. A west-southwest to southwest flow
of colder air will then bring the potential for lake effect snow
east-northeast and northeast of the lakes later Saturday night
through Sunday night. Several mid level disturbances will pass
through the mean flow through mid week, thus although lake effect
snow could be heavy at times east through northeast of the lakes,
residence time over any one area is still in question. With regard
to the cold temperatures, as the airmass grows progressively colder
through time, temperatures are expected to become bitterly cold
behind an Arctic cold front that plows across the area later
Monday/Monday night with highs in the single digits and teens
Tuesday and Wednesday and wind chills well below zero.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS a surface low along an arctic frontal boundary is
developing across western PA, with this low expected to track
northeastward...south of all TAF sites tonight. Rain this evening
will become all snow through the late evening hours across the TAF
region as the arctic front pushes eastward. Along the northwest face
of this low, snow is expected to become moderate to briefly heavy
overnight, with surface visibilities dropping to a 1/2 mile at
times. After 12Z, the surface low will be pulling to the east, but
with very cold air rushing over the still warm lakes, lake effect
snow is expected to continue along the southern and southeastern
shorelines of both eastern Great Lakes. This will continue a lengthy
period of snow with IFR or lower flight conditions well into the day
tomorrow, with improvements back to MVFR towards the west the final
few hours of this TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR with localized lake effect snow east and
southeast of the lakes.

Friday through Sunday...MVFR/IFR with snow showers at times.

Monday...MVFR/IFR with snow showers at times.

&&

.MARINE...
A low pressure system will move well north of the eastern Great
Lakes region today, while a cold front moves across the region
tonight. A secondary low will move along the front east of the Lakes
tonight. Winds may diminish a bit today, before increasing again
this evening-tonight out of the west-northwest. Small Craft
conditions will remain on the lakes and the Upper Niagara River
through the rest of the week and even well through the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ001-002-
     010-011.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ003>005.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-019-020-
     085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ013-014-
     021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042-
         043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/JM/Thomas
AVIATION...HSK/Thomas
MARINE...HSK/Thomas