Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

584
FXUS61 KBUF 010754
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep troughing will remain across our region today...and will keep
unseasonably cool temperatures and a few more showers across our
region for one more day. High pressure will then slowly drift from
the Ohio Valley to the eastern seaboard during the first half of the
new work week...bringing dry weather and a significant day to day
warming trend that will peak with midsummerlike heat on Wednesday. A
slow moving frontal system will then bring renewed chances of
showers and thunderstorms later on in the week...along with
temperatures falling back to levels typical of early June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Anomalously deep upper level troughing for early June will remain in
place across our region through today...with the axis of the trough
then gradually drifting east to eastern New York and New England
tonight. This will keep unseasonably cool conditions in place
through the period...along with the chance of a few more showers
mainly this afternoon and early this evening.

Through sunrise we can expect mainly dry and quiet weather to
prevail given the current relative lull in larger-scale moisture and
forcing for ascent...though still cannot completely rule out an
isolated sprinkle/light shower or two...particularly east of Lake
Ontario. A wealth of low level moisture will otherwise keep fairly
widespread low clouds in place from about the Genesee Valley
eastward...while across far western New York cloud cover will be
more variable.

As we push through the day...one more vigorous shortwave will rotate
south-southeastward through the larger-scale upper level trough...
with this feature crossing the area between late this morning and
this afternoon. In tandem with diurnally-driven heating of our
rather cool airmass...this feature will help to generate increasing
diurnally-driven cloud cover and eventually some scattered showers
in spite of somewhat limited moisture. The showers will be primarily
focused along and north/east of a couple of developing lake breeze
convergence zones...where the prevailing west-northwesterly synoptic-
scale flow will intersect more localized areas of west-southwesterly
and westerly flow off Lakes Erie and Ontario respectively. Outside
of the above areas any showers should be more isolated...with
another day of unseasonably cool and breezy conditions expected for
all. While temperatures will not be quite as cool as those of
yesterday...still expect afternoon highs to predominantly range in
the mid to upper 50s.

Any lingering showers will then end from west to east this evening
with the departure of the shortwave and the loss of heating...
leaving behind a mainly dry and quiet second half of the night as
high pressure and drier air over the Ohio Valley ridges
northeastward into our area. This will bring clearing skies and
lightening winds...and this coupled with our still-cool airmass will
allow lows to fall into the lower half of the 40s in most areas...
with lower sfc dewpoints and light winds even allowing for some mid
to upper 30s across interior portions of the Southern Tier. This may
well allow for some patchy frost in a few spots...though at this
point the potential for such appears to be too localized and short-
lived to be worth a Frost Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Longwave trough over the Northeast Conus will depart Monday. High
pressure will settle over the Carolinas and into the western
Atlantic this period as a closed low over Baja California opens
up into the Four Corners, with this general trough turning more
progressive as it extends into the Midwest. This will strengthen
a ridge axis over the Great Lakes Tuesday and Northeast by
Wednesday which will boost thermal advection into the region.
This pattern will bring an extended period of fair weather along
with warmer temperatures, peaking Wednesday with highs reaching
the mid 80s to around 90 degrees (warmest readings inland from
the lakes).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Our stretch of dry weather will yield to a more unsettled pattern
and more seasonable temps heading into the second half of the week.
A broad mid-level trough encroaching on the Great Lakes will run up
against the flattening offshore ridge, causing the surface wave to
ride northeast from the Midwest Wednesday night to Quebec Friday. A
steady transport of Gulf-based moisture into the region will result
in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night
through at least Friday. The primary mid-level trough axis and cold
front look to cross the region between Friday evening and Saturday
morning, with decreasing chances for precip thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through the early morning hours expect mainly dry weather to
continue...with a wealth of stratus keeping mostly cloudy skies in
place from about the Genesee Valley eastward...and more variable
cloud cover found further west across far western New York. Flight
conditions will be mainly VFR...with some embedded MVFR across the
higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

As we push through the daylight hours...a vigorous shortwave will
dive south-southeastward across the area between late this morning
and this afternoon. This will help to generate some additional
scattered showers mainly this afternoon and early this evening...
with these primarily focused along and a bit north/east of lake
breeze convergence zones extending from the Niagara Frontier east-
southeastward across the Finger Lakes...and also from just north of
KART east-ssoutheastward across the North Country. Flight conditions
will be predominantly VFR...with brief and highly localized MVFR
possible within the showers.

Tonight the scattered showers will end from west to east this
evening with the loss of heating...with skies also clearing out from
west to east as high pressure and drier air ridges northeastward
from the Ohio Valley. This will result in flight conditions
improving to unlimited VFR.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep low pressure will continue to withdraw northward across Quebec
today while high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. The still
somewhat-tight pressure gradient in between these two systems will
support brisk west to west-southwesterly winds across both Lakes
Erie and Ontario today...for which Small Craft Advisories will be
required.

The surface high over the Ohio Valley will then ridge northeastward
across our region tonight...allowing for diminishing winds and
waves. A general modest to moderate southwesterly flow will then
follow for the first half of the work week as the high slowly drifts
east to the eastern seaboard...with winds and waves expected to
remain below advisory thresholds through midweek.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ005-006.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NYZ007.
     Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through this
     evening for NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon
         for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR